Here's a current look at precipitable water across the area. The yellows and greens represent higher moisture content off to our north, while we are in relatively less moist conditions down this way. Still, if you step outside, it's still going to fell quite muggy! But some changes are a'coming...
A frontal boundary will be approaching from the north thanks to a digging trough over the northeastern U.S. Notice the clear delineation of dry air (purple) and moist air (blues/greens). It's this boundary that will usher in some much drier air and some cooler air as well. Now let's examine rain chances...
Here's the GFS forecast 500mb heights and vorticity gradients. It appears as though we have a weak ribbon of vorticity being advected over our area early Friday morning. However, if you remember from the images above, the moisture content for Friday morning is relatively less than what's currently over the Memphis area. Due to the weak uplift and reduced moisture, I think we'll only see an increase in cloud cover with a few showers Thursday night into Friday morning.
Here's the GFS looking at 700mb relative humidity. It looks like the moisture will be slow to scour out Friday, so some lingering clouds are a decent bet across the area as we see highs drop back into the upper 80s to around 90.
Lastly, here's the GFS for Saturday morning looking at surface pressure, wind, and dew point temperature. Notice the sprawling high off to our northeast that's really helping to scour out moisture thanks to a northerly wind.
Given this cooler, drier air being advected towards the GTR, it's reasonable that we may see lows this weekend get down to around 60 with some communities in north Mississippi potentially reaching the upper 50s - a nice first taste of fall!
IW
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