Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Tuesday Morning Forecast Thoughts


A surge of very dry mid-level air has begun to overspread us here in the GTR over the last several hours as a frontal boundary moved through overnight. This is allowing for lots of sunshine this morning, and that trend will continue for the next several days as this drier airmass remains in place. 
This image shows a trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard region. Notice we are on the periphery/southern edge of this trough, but it was enough of a push to get that frontal boundary just to our south. However, this trough is expected to continue lifting to the northeast, so the front may not make it any farther south than I-20. But that means we should be enough in the dry airmass to remove rain chances for the next couple of days. 
By Wednesday afternoon, those northerly surface winds continue to usher in drier air immediately behind the frontal boundary. Notice the convergent   winds over south-central MS/AL - that's where the frontal boundary has stalled. 
Strong high pressure to our north and northeast will eventually slide to the south, basically down the eastern seaboard by the first part of the weekend. Clockwise flow around the high will allow for moisture to gradually return. Even though the high is forecast to weaken by the GFS, moisture should increase enough to increase daytime cloud cover as well as increase the heat index as well. 
For now, there's no overwhelming evidence to suggest any significant rain chances for at least next 5 to 7 days. Enjoy the dry weather, but watch out for the heat index issues by the weekend! 

IW

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