We begin this morning by looking at precipitable water values across the area. PW numbers are very low, meaning the air is very dry. There is a reservoir of tropical moisture located down along the Gulf Coast, and this will begin a northward transport over the next 24 hours and consequently increase our rain chances.
Here’s a look at surface MSLP. Notice the lowering of pressure in the western Gulf as well as across the western Great Plains. These two features will bring us some rain chances by tomorrow.
The first image depicts a strong shortwave trough over the western Plains, and the next is its evolution to our area by tomorrow morning. While it will be weakening, a slightly negative tilt to the shortwave will enhance some downstream uplift across the area with its associated PVA downstream of the vort max in the base of the trough.
Also, while not overly impressive, we should be in the right rear quadrant of an upper-level jet streak moving across the area as well. This will also enhance some uplift across the area.
BOTTOM LINE: Rain becomes likely tomorrow morning early, and a few thunderstorms could be in the mix as well. Given expected wind profiles, storm organization, at least of a pulse-type variety, is possible and therefore a quick burst of damaging wind gusts or a brief spinup tornado is possible, although this threat is almost zero.
A mid-level ridge builds in for Wednesday - Friday as a strong, longwave trough evolves over the western US. This ridge will bring us some warmer and drier weather, but another front is due in here by late weekend.
IW
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