Friday Morning Forecast Thoughts

We've got a partly cloudy sky across the GTR late this morning after some morning fog that lifted a little earlier this morning. We're expecting a mostly sunny sky this afternoon as drier air filters in. 

Here's a snapshot of that dry air for this afternoon. Notice strong high pressure in the New England area, with a broad easterly flow prevailing across the Southeast. This should again allow for a partly to mostly sunny sky for this afternoon that will continue through tomorrow as well. 

We've also got a ridge of high pressure aloft sitting over the top of us here in the GTR at least through tomorrow afternoon. This will keep us calm and warm, but some changes will start to happen by the end of the weekend. 

The aforementioned ridge is forecast to break down and retreat to the southwest. As that happens, what was a strong trough over the western US will have lifted northeast and weakened, but a piece of energy/weakness in the heights may move across our area by late Sunday through Monday. This will bring with it at least a chance of showers. 

The models continue the idea of a stronger trough by next weekend, but this morning's run of the GFS is farther to the north with most of the energy. This type of 'flip-flopping' can be expected, but the general idea of showers and storms remains possible across the eastern third of the country by the beginning of next weekend. 

IW

Thursday Morning Forecast Thoughts

We woke up to more fog and clouds across the GTR this morning! A big reason why is there is some residual moisture at 700mb across the area. This axis of moisture extends from south-central Alabama through northast MS into eastern Missouri. 

By 7 PM, the GFS suggests this moisture axis is still going to be hanging around by this evening, but some sunshine will hopefully make it through the clouds this afternoon. 

By Friday evening, a mid-level ridge tries to build in from the southwest, as it kind of sandwiched between a large trough to our west and east. This should mean fairly warm temperatures and lots of sunshine for us for Friday and Saturday. 

A weak front will try and approach us from the northwest by the first part of next week. Remember this is just one model, but a few showers are possible by Monday and into Tuesday. 

I just wanted to show this potential shortwave by next weekend. This would likely bring us some showers and storms by next Saturday, but we still have lots of time to watch this system over the next week! 

IW

Monday Morning Forecast Thoughts

We begin this morning by looking at precipitable water values across the area. PW numbers are very low, meaning the air is very dry. There is a reservoir of tropical moisture located down along the Gulf Coast, and this will begin a northward transport over the next 24 hours and consequently increase our rain chances. 

Here’s a look at surface MSLP. Notice the lowering of pressure in the western Gulf as well as across the western Great Plains. These two features will bring us some rain chances by tomorrow. 

The first image depicts a strong shortwave trough over the western Plains, and the next is its evolution to our area by tomorrow morning. While it will be weakening, a slightly negative tilt to the shortwave will enhance some downstream uplift across the area with its associated PVA downstream of the vort max in the base of the trough. 

Also, while not overly impressive, we should be in the right rear quadrant of an upper-level jet streak moving across the area as well. This will also enhance some uplift across the area. 

BOTTOM LINE: Rain becomes likely tomorrow morning early, and a few thunderstorms could be in the mix as well. Given expected wind profiles, storm organization, at least of a pulse-type variety, is possible and therefore a quick burst of damaging wind gusts or a brief spinup tornado is possible, although this threat is almost zero. 

A mid-level ridge builds in for Wednesday - Friday as a strong, longwave trough evolves over the western US. This ridge will bring us some warmer and drier weather, but another front is due in here by late weekend. 

IW

Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Thoughts

Here's a look at current precipitable water values. Notice we are still in a relative minimum here in the GTR; therefore, we've got lots of sunshine across the area early this afternoon with just a few high cirrus clouds. 

By tomorrow afternoon, we're expected to see these PW values increase to at least around 1.5". We can expect a bit more cloud cover across the area as a result, but will there be any showers? 

Notice the core of the upper level ridge over Louisiana. The lighter blues near Monroe represent a small area of vorticity, and this is being slowly advected eastward. So therefore, we can expect at least a few showers or storms in scattered spots across the area this afternoon. 

We might have an interesting weather setup this weekend. A frontal boundary will be approaching us from the northwest, but now the GFS is suggesting maybe some type of tropical low spinning up in the far northern Gulf. I'll be watching on how these features evolve over the next couple of days! 

IW

Monday Morning Forecast Thoughts

Here's a current look at water vapor across the area on this Monday morning. Notice we've got more greys in the area than over the weekend; mid-level moisture has begun to increase which is why we've got some high-level cirrus in the area this morning. 

Also, here's a look at precipitable water values across the area. Notice a relative minimum across the GTR right now; I'm expecting this to continue throughout today and therefore I'm not expecting any rain chances today. Notice moisture pooling to our north in association with a frontal boundary, but this front is losing steam and should not make it much farther south than its current position. 

Models have agreed that our low-level flow will be easterly throughout today and Tuesday, so gradual moisture return is likely but the overall moisture content should remain limited as the moisture is getting modified. 

By the week's end, we'll see a more southeasterly and southerly low-level flow, and moisture should be higher relative to earlier in the week. This will allow for higher rain chances as well as a frontal boundary tries to approach us from the northwest. 

BOTTOM LINE: 

Dry weather stays with us for today and Tuesday, but isolated showers are possible for the middle of the week. I think a little bit higher rain chances comes in here for Friday - Sunday in association with a slow-moving front. 

IW

Friday Morning Forecast Thoughts

Latest water vapor analysis shows the core of the upper-low over parts of New York, with a trailing trough axis through the Ohio River Valley. The darker colors and oranges in the image above indicate drier mid-level air that's on its way southward! This is great news if you like fall weather...

Here's the evidence of that drier air. Check out dew point temperatures to our north: already 61 in Tupelo! That drier air, again, is on its way southward and is going to allow for a very pleasant evening with temperatures into the mid/upper 50s tonight across most of the GTR area. 

The GFS shows strong high pressure influencing our weather this weekend. With a refreshing northeasterly flow, drier air will remain in place through the weekend with highs only in the low to mid 80s tomorrow with very low humidity! 

That's a look at the next 36 hours: cool, refreshing, and sunny! Enjoy it while it lasts! :) 

IW

Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Thoughts

Here's a current look at precipitable water across the area. The yellows and greens represent higher moisture content off to our north, while we are in relatively less moist conditions down this way. Still, if you step outside, it's still going to fell quite muggy! But some changes are a'coming...

A frontal boundary will be approaching from the north thanks to a digging trough over the northeastern U.S. Notice the clear delineation of dry air (purple) and moist air (blues/greens). It's this boundary that will usher in some much drier air and some cooler air as well. Now let's examine rain chances...

Here's the GFS forecast 500mb heights and vorticity gradients. It appears as though we have a weak ribbon of vorticity being advected over our area early Friday morning. However, if you remember from the images above, the moisture content for Friday morning is relatively less than what's currently over the Memphis area. Due to the weak uplift and reduced moisture, I think we'll only see an increase in cloud cover with a few showers Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Here's the GFS looking at 700mb relative humidity. It looks like the moisture will be slow to scour out Friday, so some lingering clouds are a decent bet across the area as we see highs drop back into the upper 80s to around 90. 

Lastly, here's the GFS for Saturday morning looking at surface pressure, wind, and dew point temperature. Notice the sprawling high off to our northeast that's really helping to scour out moisture thanks to a northerly wind. 

Given this cooler, drier air being advected towards the GTR, it's reasonable that we may see lows this weekend get down to around 60 with some communities in north Mississippi potentially reaching the upper 50s - a nice first taste of fall!

IW

Monday Morning Forecast Thoughts

This morning we've got lots of sunshine across the GTR area with temperatures in the upper 70s, but we're warming up fast! We'll see low and mid 90s this afternoon. But we are watching the radar this morning...

The radar is showing a few showers to our north across parts of Middle Tennessee into the northwestern parts of Alabama. These showers are moving slowly southeastward, and they may clip parts of the GTR area later this afternoon but I do think a lot of us will stay dry. 

It looks like some surface high pressure will build back in from the east by the middle of the week. I think this will suppress rain chances completely, and we'll see dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday with highs remaining ranging from 90 to 93. 

The GFS continues to paint a weak frontal system affecting our area late Thursday into Friday. I think moisture will be limited, though certainly non-zero and therefore a few showers or storms are possible during this timeframe.

High pressure looks to quickly settle in behind this frontal passage, but it also looks like it will be short lived. We'll likely see an easterly to east-southeasterly flow prevail for the end of the weekend into next week, and this will keep temperatures a little below normal but also keep some rain chances in the forecast as well. 

IW

Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Thoughts

Here's the GFS forecast for 18z today, so about 30 minutes ago. We have a strong ridge of high pressure over the central portions of the country, while we have general troughiness over the eastern third of the country. Here locally in the GTR, we're certainly feeling some of the impacts of that ridge as those temperatures are climbing into the low 90s. 

But boy it sure is feeling quite comfortable despite the toasty temperatures. Check out these dew point temperatures: low 60s for us in Starkville - that's certainly something we like to see as we get towards the end of summer. You have to remember - even though we are in the first part of September, temperatures can still reach the upper 90s into the low 100s so we can be thankful we aren't dealing with that type of brutal heat. 

Moving ahead to Friday, we are still expected to feeling quite nice thanks to the northeasterly flow at the surface as depicted in the map above. Dewpoint temperatures are expected to remain about where they are now - the low 60s - at least through the end of the week....good news!

A return flow begins to evolve by Monday of next week. Here's the GFS showing a more southeasterly surface wind. As a result, we'll see that dewpoint temperature begin to creep back up as moisture returns. As this happens, we may squeeze out a few storms during the afternoon, but most areas should stay dry. 

Both the Euro and GFS do agree on some type of frontal system trying to push south into our area by the middle part of next week. Should these solutions verify, we could see an increase in the number of showers and storms in our neck of the woods. But for now, enjoy the warm weather along with the 'dry' feel to the air! 

IW

Tuesday Morning Forecast Thoughts

A surge of very dry mid-level air has begun to overspread us here in the GTR over the last several hours as a frontal boundary moved through overnight. This is allowing for lots of sunshine this morning, and that trend will continue for the next several days as this drier airmass remains in place. 

This image shows a trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard region. Notice we are on the periphery/southern edge of this trough, but it was enough of a push to get that frontal boundary just to our south. However, this trough is expected to continue lifting to the northeast, so the front may not make it any farther south than I-20. But that means we should be enough in the dry airmass to remove rain chances for the next couple of days. 

By Wednesday afternoon, those northerly surface winds continue to usher in drier air immediately behind the frontal boundary. Notice the convergent   winds over south-central MS/AL - that's where the frontal boundary has stalled. 

Strong high pressure to our north and northeast will eventually slide to the south, basically down the eastern seaboard by the first part of the weekend. Clockwise flow around the high will allow for moisture to gradually return. Even though the high is forecast to weaken by the GFS, moisture should increase enough to increase daytime cloud cover as well as increase the heat index as well. 

For now, there's no overwhelming evidence to suggest any significant rain chances for at least next 5 to 7 days. Enjoy the dry weather, but watch out for the heat index issues by the weekend! 

IW