Starting things off this morning, there's lots of clouds across the GTR area into northwest Alabama. Moisture remains abundant across the area, and we can definitely feel it this morning with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The map above shows 850mb winds and precipitable water at the 850mb level. In the oval area I delineated, notice how there are convergent winds. This convergence axis will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms later this morning lasting through the afternoon hours.
Some showers are already developing, primarily across southern Middle Tennessee. I think they will continue developing southwest through northeastern parts of central Mississippi as well through the afternoon hours.
Another driving force for today's weather is the weakness in heights/weak trough of low pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere. As we progress through the day, this feature is expected to lift slowly towards the northeast away from our area. However, a trailing ribbon of weak vorticity will be gradually advected over northeast MS/northwest AL primarily, so at least scattered showers and storms will be possible through the afternoon.
Looking into the future toward the weekend, the current ridge of high pressure over the western High Plains will slowly build/expand eastward. By Sunday, the core of the high pressure should be centered near Tulsa, OK, and surface high pressure will also build in from New England by the first part of next week. This should mean an overall decrease in rain coverage and a gradual increase in temperatures. We could see low, and mayyyybe mid 90s by the first part of next week. We'll have to see how the overall pattern evolves because for much of the summer, this ridge has been anchored over the western US with general troughiness across the eastern half of the country.
Enjoy your Wednesday, and God Bless!
IW
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