More Storms Today, but Drying Out, or Not?

Here's a look at radar this afternoon around 1:30 PM. Most of the showers and storms today are ongoing across the southern half of Alabama, moving steadily southeastward. Some sun has peaked through the clouds in west Alabama, and temperatures are accordingly in the mid 80s.

However, the latest 15z RPM model shows more showers and storms developing this evening across northwest Alabama and northeast Mississippi. This modeled image is forecast for 9 pm this evening. Given that we remain in a northwesterly flow aloft and under the influence of an upper-level trough, it's not unreasonable to think that additional showers and storms may form thanks to subtle vorticity maxima moving through the trough. This might seem hard to believe given all the rain we've had recently, but it can still happen!

The two images above depict some changes that may happen toward the end of the week. The first is a look at 500mb Friday morning. Notice a general trough still over the eastern half of the country, but our wind direction has shifted to the west, allowing for a 'flat' look to the height lines. This, juxtaposed with the second image, which shows northerly winds at the surface, should mean for a drier forecast and a little warmer temperatures.

As has been the case this entire summer, more changes are on the way for the weekend. It looks like a frontal boundary will try to work in here for Saturday into Sunday morning. Showers and storms may accompany this feature as well, but it looks like we may dry out once again toward the start of next week. Northerly winds may prevail at least for the part of the week, which should mean decreased, albeit non-zero, rain chances and temperatures right around average levels / 89-92 / .

A quick check of the tropics reveals a new tropical storm: Dorian. The NHC just classified this as a tropical storm this morning, and the forecast track brings it almost due westward, potentially nearing the southeastern Bahamas in about 6 days or so as a moderate tropical storm. It's way too early in the game to talk potential intensity and eventual track, so stay tuned for further updates and visit www.nhc.noaa.gov for the most up-to-date information on Dorian.

Have a great Tuesday, and God Bless!

IW