We'll begin by looking at a regional radar image of the Southeast. Notice a thin line of showers and storms across southeast Alabama stretching to north Georgia. More widespread showers and storms remain in a swath from the Florida Peninsula up the Atlantic seaboard to the Carolinas. Less widespread showers continue over middle Tennessee and these will likely build into north MS/AL later this afternoon as lift from an upper-level low pressure system overspread that area.
Here's a look at the NAM forecast vorticity at 500mb for Tuesday afternoon. Notice the large trough of low pressure along the Mississippi River, and the building ridge over the west-central Atlantic. These two systems are 'battling' so to speak, and many vorticity maxima are actually located still in a corridor from north Florida to the Carolinas.
By the time Thursday gets here, that axis of higher lift and moisture will be spreading west toward Alabama. Unfortunately this will mean periods of showers and storms on and off throughout Thursday lingering into much of the day Friday as well. Given the excessive moisture and prolonged lift, some isolated flooding issues may arise during this timeframe.
Otherwise, the building ridge in the western Atlantic should finally win the battle over the weekend and this will cause our rain chances to begin decreasing to the average afternoon storm chances and our temperatures increasing back to near average, which is in the low 90s for this time of the year.
Enjoy your Monday afternoon, and God Bless!
IW
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