Here's a current look at visible satellite imagery across the state as of 2 PM. Notice cloudiness in southeastern parts of the state, contrasted with splotchy clouds across northwest and west Alabama. That's because the 'splotchy' clouds are more convective in nature, since they're more directly associated with the upper-level low center located to our north of the Ohio Valley.
Here's a look at the GFS forecast at 1 pm tomorrow at 500mb. We are looking at vorticity. Notice we have a ribbon of vorticity stretching from Mississippi through AL up to Ohio. All along this corridor, at least isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible tomorrow afternoon.
Here's a look at the jet stream level valid Wednesday afternoon. Notice an unseasonably strong jet streak (100kts) stretching from Memphis up to the Great Lakes. Parts of MS/AL are in the favorable right-rear quadrant for uplift at the surface. However, the primary convergence axis and deepest moisture axis may not be collocated with this feature just yet, but a general increase in the coverage of storms is expected for Wednesday afternoon.
However, by Independence Day, the Bermuda High over the western Atlantic will be slowly building west, causing the aforementioned upper level to actually retrograde, or move west. As this happens, the highest moisture axis is expected to be over Alabama for Thursday into Friday. While it may not rain all day both these days, confidence continues to remain fairly high at seeing showers and storms at times.
So, while that may not be what people want to hear that have outdoor plans for the 4th, we can be thankful that we are not dealing with the 115+ degree heat that parts of the Southwestern states are dealing with right now!
Have a great Sunday, and God Bless!
IW
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