We begin with a surface analysis as of 830 AM this morning. A relatively strong surface high pressure remains anchored to our northeast, with a refreshing easterly flow at the surface. This is helping keep somewhat drier air in our area right now, versus what a more southeasterly flow would mean-increasing moisture.
Looking at the upper levels, a sprawling ridge of high pressure over the nation's mid-section is also influencing our weather. Subsidence underneath this ridge is helping our sky be very bright and sunny on this Monday morning!
Here is a look at total atmospheric precipitable water valid at 4AM tomorrow morning from the latest run of the GFS (6z). Notice the values are below .75" and in some cases, are around or just below 0.5". For this time of the year, that's indicating very dry air. The aforementioned surface high is forecast to gradually weaken slightly, but the remaining core of the high should be collocated with the minimum in precipitable water as seen above. What this should mean for us here in the GTR is a very nice evening with lows ranging from 62 to 65.
As we go throughout the week, the ridge of high pressure aloft is forecast to gradually contract/retreat back to the west. As this happens, moisture will increase by the latter part of the week; precipitable water values return to around 2" by Friday.
Here's an upper level map valid for Friday afternoon at the same time. Heights are a little bit lower versus today, but there doesn't appear to be any discernible upper level support to set off any storms, but surface heating will likely contribute to at least a few storms but the coverage should remain sparse.
IW
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