Here's a quick look at 850mb theta-e and wind fields valid early this afternoon. Notice, compared to yesterday, there isn't a clear defined axis of convergence (at least in my opinion). But still, a few isolated downpours could develop this afternoon once daytime heating is maximized.
The transition from general troughiness to a ridge beginning to build in from the west. The above image is a 500mb chart valid at 9pm this evening; notice the weakness in upper heights has shifted into New England, carrying the better rain chances with it. In its wake, notice the core of an upper ridge currently located over the OK/TX Panhandles. Most model guidance builds this ridge eastward over the weekend.
By Sunday, the ridge is expected to be fairly well established across the center of the country. Here locally in the GTR, as upper heights rise, we should feel the impacts of this ridge primarily in the form of increasing temperatures. However, at the same time, high pressure over the Appalachians will also influence our weather and the GFS is suggesting an easterly flow at the surface. This would imply that, despite the upper heights rising due to the aforementioned ridge, our temperatures may not exceed the mid 90s at worst.
Also, most model guidance suggests some drier air will begin to work into our area by the end of the weekend and persist into the first part of next week. This will be a little abnormal as it's rather unlikely that we can say with reasonable confidence that it may not rain for a couple days in August in Mississippi. But by the same token, it IS August in Mississippi, so stay tuned for potential changes!
Have a great Thursday, and God Bless!
IW
No comments:
Post a Comment