More Storms Today, but Drying Out, or Not?

Here's a look at radar this afternoon around 1:30 PM. Most of the showers and storms today are ongoing across the southern half of Alabama, moving steadily southeastward. Some sun has peaked through the clouds in west Alabama, and temperatures are accordingly in the mid 80s.

However, the latest 15z RPM model shows more showers and storms developing this evening across northwest Alabama and northeast Mississippi. This modeled image is forecast for 9 pm this evening. Given that we remain in a northwesterly flow aloft and under the influence of an upper-level trough, it's not unreasonable to think that additional showers and storms may form thanks to subtle vorticity maxima moving through the trough. This might seem hard to believe given all the rain we've had recently, but it can still happen!

The two images above depict some changes that may happen toward the end of the week. The first is a look at 500mb Friday morning. Notice a general trough still over the eastern half of the country, but our wind direction has shifted to the west, allowing for a 'flat' look to the height lines. This, juxtaposed with the second image, which shows northerly winds at the surface, should mean for a drier forecast and a little warmer temperatures.

As has been the case this entire summer, more changes are on the way for the weekend. It looks like a frontal boundary will try to work in here for Saturday into Sunday morning. Showers and storms may accompany this feature as well, but it looks like we may dry out once again toward the start of next week. Northerly winds may prevail at least for the part of the week, which should mean decreased, albeit non-zero, rain chances and temperatures right around average levels / 89-92 / .

A quick check of the tropics reveals a new tropical storm: Dorian. The NHC just classified this as a tropical storm this morning, and the forecast track brings it almost due westward, potentially nearing the southeastern Bahamas in about 6 days or so as a moderate tropical storm. It's way too early in the game to talk potential intensity and eventual track, so stay tuned for further updates and visit www.nhc.noaa.gov for the most up-to-date information on Dorian.

Have a great Tuesday, and God Bless!

IW

Monday Afternoon Forecast Update - 315 PM

Here's a look at radar from 305 PM this afternoon. Most of the showers are actually located from southeast through northeast Alabama with pockets of heavy rain. This activity will persist through the afternoon but should weaken by mid-evening, leaving most areas to deal with some patchy fog overnight.

By tomorrow, we'll be on the eastern periphery of a large mid-level ridge anchored over the 4 corners region. This should allow for some more sunshine across the area, but also some warmer temperatures. With that said, the garden variety afternoon storms will be in the cards for tomorrow and probably Wednesday as well, before more changes come our way.

Another trough of low pressure over the eastern third of the country will send a cold front our way by Thursday. With the moisture expected and lift from the approaching front, numerous showers and storms are likely at any time during the day Thursday and Thursday evening. Most models do agree, however, that the front will clear our area for Friday and part of Saturday so most of those days should remain dry.

By the weekend, models are continuing to pain that trough of low pressure to actually close itself off and retrograde southwest into the northwest Gulf. Since we'll have had about a day of northerly flow, moisture may be limited, but some isolated showers are possible with this feature for sure. Also, it will provide below average temperatures once again, as highs will be in the low maybe mid 80s and overnight lows for the weekend should be in the mid 60s!

Last but not least, here's a look at Tropical Storm Chantal. Reconnaissance aircraft is approaching the storm for a better look, but for now maximum sustained winds are at 45mph as she continues on a swift WNW track. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for most of the Leeward Islands. The NHC official track as Chantal making a NW turn around the eastern tip of Cuba, before potentially heading towards the nation's eastern seaboard. It remains much too early to call whether it will be a Florida issue, a Carolina issue, or a total recurver...we'll just have to wait and see!

Enjoy your Monday afternoon, and God Bless!

IW

Monday Afternoon Forecast Update - 140 PM

We'll begin by looking at a regional radar image of the Southeast. Notice a thin line of showers and storms across southeast Alabama stretching to north Georgia. More widespread showers and storms remain in a swath from the Florida Peninsula up the Atlantic seaboard to the Carolinas. Less widespread showers continue over middle Tennessee and these will likely build into north MS/AL later this afternoon as lift from an upper-level low pressure system overspread that area.

Here's a look at the NAM forecast vorticity at 500mb for Tuesday afternoon. Notice the large trough of low pressure along the Mississippi River, and the building ridge over the west-central Atlantic. These two systems are 'battling' so to speak, and many vorticity maxima are actually located still in a corridor from north Florida to the Carolinas.

By the time Thursday gets here, that axis of higher lift and moisture will be spreading west toward Alabama. Unfortunately this will mean periods of showers and storms on and off throughout Thursday lingering into much of the day Friday as well. Given the excessive moisture and prolonged lift, some isolated flooding issues may arise during this timeframe.

Otherwise, the building ridge in the western Atlantic should finally win the battle over the weekend and this will cause our rain chances to begin decreasing to the average afternoon storm chances and our temperatures increasing back to near average, which is in the low 90s for this time of the year.

Enjoy your Monday afternoon, and God Bless!

IW