Hit or Miss Rain Chances...90s By Next Week??

Currently we are dealing with a hazy sunshine across west Alabama as temperatures have cracked the 80 degree mark. We are still dealing with mostly dry conditions across the area, but that will begin to change over the course of the next 12 to 18 hours as a weak upper-level disturbance approaches from the west.

Here's a look at the mid levels (500mb) at 21z tomorrow. Even though not overly strong, the approach of this feature should help to kick off some showers and storms primarily across the northern halves of MS/AL. A few storms could become strong with small hail and gusty winds, but an organized severe weather threat is not expected to materialize due to the lack of appreciable deep-layer shear.

The 4km RPM from WSI agrees on there being scattered showers and storms across MS/AL tomorrow afternoon as well...

After Saturday, mid-level heights gradually begin to rise across the Southeast which will mean gradually increase high temperatures in the afternoon. Here's the ECMWF (from WSI) valid at 18z Monday...and notice the 5850m line is built in from the southwest. This will likely mean highs in the upper 80s for Sunday and Monday, and some locations across central MS/AL could make a run at 90 by Tuesday.

I still don't see any organized storm systems affecting the MS/AL areas over the next 10 days or so...so it looks like a benign middle-of-May forecast!

God Bless!
IW