Across the twin state region early this afternoon, it's a gorgeous one out there...temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s with maximum sunshine...no clouds to speak of at all. Over the past couple of days, high pressure has been centered over the Southeast, suppressing any cloud development and allowing for lots of sunshine with the dry weather in place.
Over the next 24 hours however, this high pressure center will begin to slide southeast of the area, and a more southwesterly flow at the surface will develop. This will result in a gradual increase in moisture, so it will likely be a bit more humid feeling outside as we head into Wednesday. Expect a bit more cloud cover to be mixed with the sunshine, too.
This is the 12z GFS valid for 18z Thursday. There is an overall weakness in the mid-level heights across the Southeast. This is associated with a very weak trough of low pressure, and combined with the expected but gradual increase in moisture, will likely set off a few showers and storms in scattered spots across MS/AL Thursday and into Friday. Since the primary storm track is so far to the north, and wind fields are weak, no organized thunderstorm activity is expected. Highs will stay in the low 80s as well throughout the rest of the week.
This is the 00z ECMWF model, valid for 18z Saturday. The weak trough is now located east of our area, with a stronger trough located over the Intermountain West region. In between these features, mid-level ridging exists. This should allow temperatures to make it well into the 80s across MS/AL, and maybe upper 80s by Sunday as this ridging remains.
As we head into next week, the Euro (and the GFS, which is not shown) agree that this trough will be very slow to migrate eastward. While the heights lower some across the Southeast, the ridge appears to be "fighting" the trough so to speak. Still, I think a frontal boundary will be able to make it at least into the norther sections of MS/AL by Wednesday. This will probably bring with it another round of rain and storms but at this time, no strong or severe storms are in the cards.
Enjoy this fabulous weather today, and God Bless!!
IW
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