Here across west Alabama/east Mississippi, we've seen partly sunny conditions today and yesterday with a muggy feel to the air. Dew point temperatures right around 70 with air temperatures in the mid 80s has made it feel quite sticky at times, especially if any rain showers were to hit your back yard.
Meanwhile, the more serious weather is expected to take place across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma into the southwestern sections of Missouri. Here's the latest day 1 convective outlook from the SPC. This risk is not only for large, potentially destructive hail, but it is also in place for the potential for a few significant tornadoes. Unfortunately, this is not what the residents of Oklahoma want or need to hear at this point as recovery efforts continue across the tornado-ravaged communities of central OK.
This frontal system will be making its way eastward and southeastward over the next day or so as well. Here's a map showing the expected position of the front, and the accumulated rain from 6 pm to Midnight Saturday night. It sure looks like a line of showers and storms will be ongoing as this front continues its southeastward push, but I think the more organized rain/storm threat will come during the daytime hours of Sunday. I think Saturday will be a lot like today, with hit-or-miss storms across the area, but they may be just a bit more numerous, especially across northwest AL/northern MS.
By Sunday, this frontal boundary should be working its way into northwest Alabama. The 12z GFS shows a modest shortwave accompanying this feature, so a few organized storms capable of producing hail or gusty winds will be possible, especially across the northern third of the state as well as the northern third of MS as well. But, no organized severe weather episode is expected at this time given the overall weak wind field.
Due to this weak wind field however, storm motions will be rather slow. Any heavy thunderstorm will be slow-moving, and any training of these storms could result in some localized flooding.
By Monday though, the front looks to have cleared most of Alabama. The lone exception will be the far eastern and southeastern parts of the state. Drier air will have worked in for most of north and west AL into the adjacent parts of MS. This will allow high temperatures to drop back into the low 80s for Monday with lows likely back into the low 60s. This will feel quite refreshing considering it's the early part of June!
And after all, Hurricane Season does start tomorrow / June 1 /. The Euro (courtesy WSI) model (as well as the GFS) continues to advertise some type of tropical cyclone across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a general movement toward the Florida Peninsula. If these solutions are correct, we would have little to no impact here in west Alabama, but some torrential rains would be a certainty across central and southern Florida Peninsula by the end of next week, so stay tuned!
Enjoy your weekend, and God Bless!
IW
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