A June Front? - Friday Discussion 3:10 PM

Here across west Alabama/east Mississippi, we've seen partly sunny conditions today and yesterday with a muggy feel to the air. Dew point temperatures right around 70 with air temperatures in the mid 80s has made it feel quite sticky at times, especially if any rain showers were to hit your back yard.

Meanwhile, the more serious weather is expected to take place across parts of central and eastern Oklahoma into the southwestern sections of Missouri. Here's the latest day 1 convective outlook from the SPC. This risk is not only for large, potentially destructive hail, but it is also in place for the potential for a few significant tornadoes. Unfortunately, this is not what the residents of Oklahoma want or need to hear at this point as recovery efforts continue across the tornado-ravaged communities of central OK.

This frontal system will be making its way eastward and southeastward over the next day or so as well. Here's a map showing the expected position of the front, and the accumulated rain from 6 pm to Midnight Saturday night. It sure looks like a line of showers and storms will be ongoing as this front continues its southeastward push, but I think the more organized rain/storm threat will come during the daytime hours of Sunday. I think Saturday will be a lot like today, with hit-or-miss storms across the area, but they may be just a bit more numerous, especially across northwest AL/northern MS.

By Sunday, this frontal boundary should be working its way into northwest Alabama. The 12z GFS shows a modest shortwave accompanying this feature, so a few organized storms capable of producing hail or gusty winds will be possible, especially across the northern third of the state as well as the northern third of MS as well. But, no organized severe weather episode is expected at this time given the overall weak wind field.

Due to this weak wind field however, storm motions will be rather slow. Any heavy thunderstorm will be slow-moving, and any training of these storms could result in some localized flooding.

By Monday though, the front looks to have cleared most of Alabama. The lone exception will be the far eastern and southeastern parts of the state. Drier air will have worked in for most of north and west AL into the adjacent parts of MS. This will allow high temperatures to drop back into the low 80s for Monday with lows likely back into the low 60s. This will feel quite refreshing considering it's the early part of June!

And after all, Hurricane Season does start tomorrow / June 1 /. The Euro (courtesy WSI) model (as well as the GFS) continues to advertise some type of tropical cyclone across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a general movement toward the Florida Peninsula. If these solutions are correct, we would have little to no impact here in west Alabama, but some torrential rains would be a certainty across central and southern Florida Peninsula by the end of next week, so stay tuned!

Enjoy your weekend, and God Bless!

IW

Hit or Miss Rain Chances...90s By Next Week??

Currently we are dealing with a hazy sunshine across west Alabama as temperatures have cracked the 80 degree mark. We are still dealing with mostly dry conditions across the area, but that will begin to change over the course of the next 12 to 18 hours as a weak upper-level disturbance approaches from the west.

Here's a look at the mid levels (500mb) at 21z tomorrow. Even though not overly strong, the approach of this feature should help to kick off some showers and storms primarily across the northern halves of MS/AL. A few storms could become strong with small hail and gusty winds, but an organized severe weather threat is not expected to materialize due to the lack of appreciable deep-layer shear.

The 4km RPM from WSI agrees on there being scattered showers and storms across MS/AL tomorrow afternoon as well...

After Saturday, mid-level heights gradually begin to rise across the Southeast which will mean gradually increase high temperatures in the afternoon. Here's the ECMWF (from WSI) valid at 18z Monday...and notice the 5850m line is built in from the southwest. This will likely mean highs in the upper 80s for Sunday and Monday, and some locations across central MS/AL could make a run at 90 by Tuesday.

I still don't see any organized storm systems affecting the MS/AL areas over the next 10 days or so...so it looks like a benign middle-of-May forecast!

God Bless!
IW

Beautiful Weather Today! - Tuesday 5/14/13 12:25 PM

Across the twin state region early this afternoon, it's a gorgeous one out there...temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s with maximum sunshine...no clouds to speak of at all. Over the past couple of days, high pressure has been centered over the Southeast, suppressing any cloud development and allowing for lots of sunshine with the dry weather in place.

Over the next 24 hours however, this high pressure center will begin to slide southeast of the area, and a more southwesterly flow at the surface will develop. This will result in a gradual increase in moisture, so it will likely be a bit more humid feeling outside as we head into Wednesday. Expect a bit more cloud cover to be mixed with the sunshine, too.

This is the 12z GFS valid for 18z Thursday. There is an overall weakness in the mid-level heights across the Southeast. This is associated with a very weak trough of low pressure, and combined with the expected but gradual increase in moisture, will likely set off a few showers and storms in scattered spots across MS/AL Thursday and into Friday. Since the primary storm track is so far to the north, and wind fields are weak, no organized thunderstorm activity is expected. Highs will stay in the low 80s as well throughout the rest of the week.

This is the 00z ECMWF model, valid for 18z Saturday. The weak trough is now located east of our area, with a stronger trough located over the Intermountain West region. In between these features, mid-level ridging exists. This should allow temperatures to make it well into the 80s across MS/AL, and maybe upper 80s by  Sunday as this ridging remains.

As we head into next week, the Euro (and the GFS, which is not shown) agree that this trough will be very slow to migrate eastward. While the heights lower some across the Southeast, the ridge appears to be "fighting" the trough so to speak. Still, I think a frontal boundary will be able to make it at least into the norther sections of MS/AL by Wednesday. This will probably bring with it another round of rain and storms but at this time, no strong or severe storms are in the cards.

Enjoy this fabulous weather today, and God Bless!!

IW