Visible satellite imagery shows a fetch of clouds representing a channel of low and mid-level moisture originating in the eastern Pacific. This is in advance of our next storm system that is organizing over the Four Corners region.
A longwave trough will be evolving eastward by Tuesday while a ridge of high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be anchored over the Florida Peninsula. This type of setup favors a funneling of moisture in from the eastern Pacific, and this is already seen in visible imagery shown above.
Meanwhile, the low-level airmass will remain dry through at least Wednesday. You can see the cold front off to our west and associated showers. Notice the tightly packed isobars across the GTR/Southeast - this suggests slowly retreating high pressure and a residual wedging effect, especially for areas just to our east.
So, through Wednesday, all of our clouds will be high based into the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere thanks to the dry characteristics of the low level airmass.
Most models agree that a band of rain will work in here Wednesday evening into the predawn hours of Thursday. Models aren’t quite as bullish on overall precipitation this go-around as they were last week, but they might be undergoing it just a tad (I’ll show PWATs below). By the same token, the models could actually be spot on thanks to the relatively delay in our surface moisture flux that will not commence until Wednesday afternoon.
Still, we cannot ignore these high PWAT values (exceeding 2” here in the GTR). But also, just like last time, this might be an event where the heaviest rain will be confined to the Delta of Mississipppi into southwest MS/central Louisiana.
Behind this system, strong high pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley Friday morning. This will likely lead to temperatures falling to around 40 or into the upper 30s, marking the return of the crisp, cool feeling we saw this past weekend!
IW
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