Monday Afternoon Forecast Thoughts

We're enjoying a very pleasant, warm day across the GTR and really the entire Southeast. The sky is mostly clear and it feels great. But notice off to our northwest the blue dots and much colder temperatures; that's associated with a frontal system that will be bringing in the coldest air so far this Fall season to our area by the middle of the week. 

The NAM/GFS are in remarkable agreement through the middle of the week with the timing of this frontal passage. I think we will see clouds increase overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, but with such dry air in place, I don't see much chance of rain…but I suppose a sprinkle is possible! 

Also notice the very strong (1044mb) area of high pressure building in behind this front. That strong pressure gradient that results will cause our winds to be rather gusty tomorrow, maybe exceeding 20-25mph at times. Temperatures will also be struggling to get out of the 50s with strong cold air advection. 

The GFS/NAM also are in good agreement with the temperature forecasts as well. With the core of the high pressure not too far to our northwest, and a clear sky, radiational cooling will be highly effective in lowering our temperatures into the upper 20s area wide Tuesday night. The only potential caveat to this freeze would be the winds staying up higher than forecast overnight which would probably result in temperatures reaching the low 30s but creating wind chill readings well down in the lower 20s. 

This high will be firmly entrenched across the Southeast. As a result, we'll see another night (Wednesday) of sub-freezing temperatures across the GTR. Both evenings we should see temperatures range from 25 to 30 for most spots, so take preventive measures to protect sensitive plants or pets. 

It looks like the pattern will get a little progressive toward the weekend. The cold conditions will not last long, and we'll see temperatures rebounding into the 60s and upper 60s by Saturday. The flow aloft will evolve to southwesterly, and it looks like individual pieces of energy could bring some rain chances to our forecast late Friday lasting through the first part of next week, stay tuned! 

IW