We are socked in with low clouds this afternoon across the GTR, but we notice the clearing line is not all that far away! Places like Memphis, Little Rock, and Shreveport are getting lots of sunshine. Because of all the clouds, we're quite cool across the area as well!
Temperatures are holding in the 60s with northwesterly winds funneling in drier air. That breeze is making it feel kind of chilly out there, and if you step outside it feels more like a late November day versus a mid October day.
If we look at moisture in the lower levels (850mb), we can see drier air relative to the moist conditions we saw during the middle of the week. However, this will not last all that long, but we should squeeze out a predominantly sunny day tomorrow before more clouds build in tomorrow night and into Saturday.
Here's why. We have another broad, longwave trough evolving over the eastern half the country. Associated PVA in the base of said trough should lead to an increase in cloud cover, but I'm not expecting a whole lot of rain with this system simply due to the forecasted lack of moisture.
By Saturday morning, which is likely when the associated energy will be moving through with the trough, moisture is lacking. The richest moisture content is located well off to our southeast, so that's why I'm only expecting an increase in cloud cover and maybe a few spot, isolated showers.
The overall pattern looks rather progressive toward next week. Check out this whopper of a trough by Wed/Thu of next week. Raw temperature data from the GFS suggests some 30s are likely to accompany that trough, so we'll just have to see!
Because the NAO is forecast to dip a little more negatively over the next couple of days, the idea of a dose of some cold air is not all that unheard of. By the end of the month, the NAO is forecast to trend back toward neutral, so that would indicate this forecast 'cold snap' should be relatively short lived.
Have a great Friday and weekend!
IW
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