Where is Spring?

I'm sure many of you are wondering just when we will finally see consistently warm temperatures, because ever since the first day of Spring (March 20), we've seen below average temperatures across the Golden Triangle Region.

Unfortunately, more cooler weather is in the long-term forecast, as well as the short-term forecast as well...

Thanks to strong high pressure over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and clear skies tonight, we will have strong radiational cooling. This means that temperatures will fall quickly tonight, and in most spots will fall below the freezing mark for the second night in a row. We could see temperatures in some locations in the 26-29 F range! And for this reason, much of east Mississippi is under a Freeze Warning for overnight tonight. But this high pressure will begin to slide east over the next 36 hours, allowing for a southerly flow to develop which will gradually increase our temperatures, but also our moisture content as well.

As per usual with Mississippi in the Spring, changeable weather is ahead. The above image shows vorticity at 500mb. We are in a generally west-northwest flow aloft here, but notice several blips of vorticity maxima: one over northeast Texas, and another near the Missouri Bootheel. In the fast moving flow aloft, these maxima, in tandem with warm-air advection occurring at 850mb (not shown), will help create some showers across the area during the day and evening of Saturday. At this point, it's not looking like a widespread rain event, but you probably will want to carry the umbrella to any outdoor plans you may have.

After a solid 24 hours of warm-air advection as well as moisture advection, your Easter Sunday could be wet at times as well. Notice another vorticity maximum over Arkansas; this feature is slated to move east during the day and consequently we will have more rain chances in the forecast. The GFS model is also showing some surface-based CAPE (convective available potential energy) for both Saturday and Sunday. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in the mix as well, but no severe weather is expected at this time due to limited shear despite warmer temperatures....we should be in the low 70s for Easter.

Though it's tough to see thanks to the black background, a strong cold front will approach the area by the start of next week, particularly Monday into Tuesday. This system will have a bit more shear to work with, and GFS shows some CAPE as well. We will have to watch this system as some isolated severe storms are certainly possible, but confidence in frontal placement is rather low and overall confidence in any severe weather is even lower. I just want you to beware of the *potential* for there to be a few strong storms to start the work week.

As has been in the case, we really can't ditch the colder temperatures just yet, despite it being "Spring." And unfortunately, that trend looks like it will continue right on into the middle of next week as well. Here's a surface chart for next Wednesday, showing the strong cold front to our south. In its wake, we have strong surface high pressure and more cooler weather. This suggests more freezing temperatures are possible across the northern half of Mississippi.

Have a great Easter weekend, stay dry, and God Bless!

IW